THE UK's chief scientists gave a stark update on Covid-19 this morning (Monday, 21 September) – Maldon Nub News provides a summary here.

Chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty and the Government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, delivered a joint press conference at 11am.

Professor Whitty said: "As we go through time, anywhere where Covid infection rates were falling is now moving the other way. We have turned a corner in a bad sense. This is not someone else's problem, it is everyone's problem.

"If this continues the number of deaths will double every eight or so days."

He added: "The seasons are against us. This is a six-month problem and science will in due course come to our rescue, but for six months we will have to take this very seriously."

Professor Whitty said that death rates from Covid-19 will be significantly greater than ordinary seasonal flu as the virus is more virulent than flu.

He summarised the impacts of the disease for the UK as:

• Direct Covid-related deaths

• The NHS being potentially overwhelmed by a huge spike

• If the NHS has to spend large proportions of time treating Covid cases, it will lead to a reduction in other treatments and preventative medicine – and so potentially more health impacts and deaths from other causes

• Significant impacts on the economy, social welfare and mental wellbeing.

Professor Whitty explained that there are good reasons why this situation is not about the freedom to take individual risks.

He said: "The problem with a pandemic is that if I as an individual take increased risks, the risk to everyone around me is increased and eventually the chain will lead to someone who is vulnerable."

Ways of redusing risk

Professor Whitty outlined four main ways of that risk is reduced:

1. Remembering "hands, face, space" – washing and sanitising hands frequently, wearing face coverings as required and maintaining social distancing
2. Self-isolation for those with symptoms and contact tracing for those who test positive. This includes self-isolation of people who have travelled from high risk areas.
3. Breaking unnecesary links between households, at work and in social environments
4. Investing in science - drugs and diagnostics, as well as the development of vaccines.

Why we need to slow the upward trend in infections now

Sir Patrick Vallance said: "We've seen an increase in cases across Europe. In France and Spain, as hospitalisations increase, sadly but not unexpectedly, deaths are increasing."

He explained that as the disease spreads across age groups, moving from younger adults to older age ranges, hospitalisations will increase and will cause deaths.

He added that the rise in positive cases is not simply due to increased testing, as figures show that the proportion of positive tests has increased. The ongoing Office for National Statistics (ONS) study – now estimates 70,000 people in the UK have Covid infection currently, with about 6,000 new infections per day across all age groups.

If the current rate of infection continues, it is estimated that by 13 October it will be around 49,000 cases per day.

Sir Vallance highlighted that immunity to this virus fades over time and there are cases of people becoming re-infected. About eight per cent of people in the UK currently have antibodies – so the vast majority of the population is susceptible.

Concluding, he said that "good progress" has been made with vaccines and that trials show these do generate an immune response – and that there are several vaccines that are in the late stages of development. It is possible that some groups could be vaccinated by the end of the year and hopefully, though not definitely, more over the first part of next year.

Sir Vallance added: "In the meantime we have to get control of this in a way that is sustainable and protects health and society overall."

Maldon Nub News will provide an update on the latest Covid-19 infection rates in Maldon and across Essex later today."